Improve Your Investment Game By Focusing On One Opening Move

Posted on July 31, 2008
Filed Under Investment Reflections | 2 Comments

Chess is one of the games that I’ve always loved to play, and in this post I’ll discuss one particular lesson that I think chess offers to those playing the investment game.

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Pulse Data (PSD.TO): Another Low-Risk Oil and Natural Gas Service Stock

Posted on July 15, 2008
Filed Under Members, Energy Stocks | 1 Comment

We first wrote about Pulse Data (PSD.TO) nearly two years ago, on our previous blog, CasinoCapitalism.com. Since that time, the shares have basically moved nowhere. However, we think that due to certain company changes and industry events, PSD.TO may finally provide patient shareholders a significant return in the coming year. At the same time, downside seems low given the company’s buyback program, a price that is below a previous takeout over and considering the company’s stable and high dividend yield (6.8%).

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Canadian Solar (CSIQ) Announces Share Offering: Is This Just The Beginning?

Posted on July 14, 2008
Filed Under CSIQ, Alternative Energy | Leave a Comment

Given our past discussion concerning the financing needs of several polysilicon-based module manufacturers, we were not taken aback by CSIQ’s latest secondary announcement, and we think this is just the start of the company’s financing journey given its future purchase obligations.

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Earnings Preview: Lufkin Industries (LUFK)

Posted on July 11, 2008
Filed Under Members, LUFK | Leave a Comment

Lufkin Industries (Nasdaq: LUFK, Market Cap.: $1.1 billion) is an oil services stock that could move 50% higher by year end, with minimal downside risk. Importantly, the first catalyst for an improving share price may come next week when the company announces second quarter fiscal 2008 earnings. We believe that the upcoming report will finally be the start of renewed earnings momentum at the company after nearly two years of sluggish growth. Notably, LUFK is sitting on $100 million in cash and has no debt.

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Incredimail’s Stock (MAIL) Could Get A Boost

Posted on July 9, 2008
Filed Under Members, MAIL | Leave a Comment

Incredimail (Nasdaq: MAIL, Market Cap.: $32 million) is a decent speculation at current prices or lower. My optimism for the shares, at least over a short-period of time, is driven by the fact that the shares remain over 60% below their highs, and yet three positive pieces of news were recently delivered that seemingly could boost the stock price.

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Funding for Polysilicon-Based PV Manufacturers: A Look at Four Companies

Posted on July 6, 2008
Filed Under Members, CSIQ, Alternative Energy | Leave a Comment

In this post we will take a look at the future capital needs and funding requirements of four Chinese polysilicon-based PV Manufacturers.

Briefly, our conclusion, based on current low cash levels, high outstanding short-term debt as a percentage of total capital, and future capital needs, in the form of outstanding purchase obligations listed in recent 20-F filings, is that nearly all of the companies mentioned here (i.e. TSL, CSIQ, SOLF, YGE) will have a significant weakening of balance sheets in the near term, as short-term debt levels soar to support growing operating cash losses and purchase obligations. The prospect of immediate dilution via direct equity share offerings is clearly remote, as past history shows that these companies prefer to use convertible debt issues, as opposed to straight equity, as a longer-term financing vehicle.

(Please note: Complete spreadsheets, which are updated quarterly, with all of our financial assumptions about the polysilicon-based PV Manufacturers mentioned here, are available to subscribers of Envoy Global Research).

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Clarifying The Financial Issues Facing Polysilicon-Based PV Manufacturers

Posted on July 3, 2008
Filed Under Members, CSIQ, Alternative Energy | Leave a Comment

In this post, I will address the two most common criticisms of our article last month on several polysilicon-based PV manufacturers and thereby hopefully clarify the financial issues that confront many of these polysilicon-based PV manufacturers.

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ATS Automation Tooling Systems (ATA.TO) Restructuring Shows Evidence of Success: Does the Stock Still Have Upside?

Posted on July 1, 2008
Filed Under Members, Alternative Energy, ATA.TO | Leave a Comment

In this post, I’ll take a look at ATS Automation (ATA.TO or ATSAF.PK ), a Canadian company that primarily specializes in providing automated manufacturing systems to various sectors, including the fast-growing alternative energy industry. In addition, the company also owns PhotoWatt France, a provider of photovoltaic solar energy cells and modules and is a leader in the manufacture of UMGSi silicon, a lower grade of silicon that can be acquired more readily than polysilicon.

ATS Automation has been in restructuring mode since September 2007, when a group of shareholders successfully ousted past management and installed a whole new leadership team. Recently, the company’s fourth quarter fiscal 2008 financial results demonstrated significant financial improvements and a strong outlook for fiscal 2009, prompting me to take a closer look at the company. Although the stock has appreciated dramatically from its low earlier this year, I still believe that ATS Automation (ATA.TO), has significant upside (100%) in the next one to three years.

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