• Home
• About Us
• Contact Us

ActivIdentity (ACTI) Wins Big

Posted on October 24, 2006

Congrats to subscribers who have held on to ActivIdentity (ACTI). We recommended the stock on CasinoCapitalism.com, back in March 2006, at $4.37, and after alot of volatility were finally rewarded today with the announcement of a huge HSPD-12 government contract. Specifically, the company announced
a major contract win with the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD), U.S. Army and
U.S. Air Force for ACTI’s smart card desktop client software to enable their move to next-
generation HSPD-12 certified Common Access Cards for 3.5 million military personnel and
contractors around the world. 

Jason Hart, CEO of ActivIdentity, had this say: "The issuance of HSPD-12 enabled smart cards throughout the government is
a tremendous first step toward the security and efficiency goals set by the
President.  We are now working with many agencies to help them begin the
process of putting the infrastructure and applications in place to allow the
full potential of interoperability and advanced authentication."

Interestingly, the Stanford Group Company values the HSPD-12 market at
approximately $1.3 billion over five years, with the bulk of the revenue
flowing in fiscal years 2007-2009, *(Identity Solutions Industry Outlook, July
2006). So clearly, ACTI has a significant business opportunity as HSPD-12 rolls out.

As we have mentioned previously, if ActivIdentity can continue to execute on its revenue growth and cost-cutting
initatives, the company will, as per management´s guidance, turn a
profit in 2007. We think, as noted in the past,
that if these forecasts prove accurate, that the stock can trade at
2.5X to 3X revenue, a still substantial discount to the valuation
accorded to RSA (a competitor to ACTI) in the recent EMC acquisition.
Assuming a $60 million revenue run rate in 2007, and $135 million in
cash (no debt), that implies a price target for ACTI of between $6.25
and and $7 per share over the next 12 months.

Please Note: We first recommended ActivIdentity (ACTI) at $4.37, and still hold a position in the
stock. All ideas, opinions, and/or forecasts, expressed or implied
herein, are for informational purposes only and should not be construed
as a recommendation to invest, trade, and/or speculate in the markets.
Any investments, trades, and/or speculations made in light of the
ideas, opinions, and/or forecasts, expressed or implied herein, are
committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.

RSS Feeds:

Disclaimer:
This site may include market analysis and we may own shares in the stocks mentioned in our reports. All ideas, opinions, and/or forecasts, expressed or implied herein, are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to invest, trade, and/or speculate in the markets. Any investments, trades, and/or speculations made in light of the ideas, opinions, and/or forecasts, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.

Comments