Alternative Energy


Solar Tax Credit Renewal Positive for Alternative Energy Holdings

Wednesday, September 24th, 2008

Yesterday, the US Senate voted Tuesday to extend solar tax credits for the next eight years. The news is positive for the following alternative energy stocks, I have covered here: PWER, NX, and ATA.TO.

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Quanex Building Products (NX): Thin Film Solar Connection Could Boost Shares

Tuesday, September 16th, 2008

Despite significant exposure to the US residential real estate market, I believe that Quanex (NYSE: NX), a recent spin-off, has solid appreciation potential over the next few years. My optimism is based on the following two factors: the company’s growing presence in the thin film solar market, and a pristine balance sheet ($50 million in net cash, $2 million in debt, and $20 million in cash pending receipt), which should allow NX to pursue highly accretive acquisitions in the current weak operating environment. In addition, the stock’s low valuation, already appears to reflect the well-known problems in US residential real estate. As such, a slight sentiment change in the macro environment, combined with a growing recognition of NX’s solar and other green growth opportunities, could lift the shares.

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SolarFun (SOLF): Taking a Closer Look at the Numbers

Friday, August 29th, 2008

SolarFun (SOLF), a Chinese manufacturer of polysilicon-based solar modules, recently announced financial results, which were greeted negatively by the market, but which were actually positive in certain respects. Specifically, the company’s detailed breakdown of capital outlays into cap-ex and pre-payments to suppliers, provide a more accurate measure of the company’s true profitability, and give some indication of future financing needs and cash-flow potential of SOLF. In addition, the deal with Q-Cells and the company’s gross margin projections for 2009, both signal interesting possibilities over the next year. Combined, the above factors can provide certain guidelines of how to speculate, and hopefully make money, in SOLF’s stock going forward.

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ATS Automation (ATA.TO): Reports Exceptional Results Remains a Solid and Undiscovered Alternative Energy Investment

Wednesday, August 13th, 2008

This morning ATS Automation (ATA.TO) reported financial results that far exceeded my expectations. Overall, my feeling is still that ATA.TO remains undervalued and the stock price should increase significantly as more investors recognize that the company’s turnaround is progressing smoothly and the future outlook for the business is exceptional given the strength in solar and other alternative energy markets.

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Canadian Solar (CSIQ): Financing of Growth Still a Major Concern

Wednesday, August 13th, 2008

This morning Canadian Solar (CSIQ) reported exceptional earnings results, and yet I still remain convinced that the company will need to dilute shareholders significantly in the year ahead in order to meet their lofty 2009 expectations.

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Canadian Solar (CSIQ) Announces Share Offering: Is This Just The Beginning?

Monday, July 14th, 2008

Given our past discussion concerning the financing needs of several polysilicon-based module manufacturers, we were not taken aback by CSIQ’s latest secondary announcement, and we think this is just the start of the company’s financing journey given its future purchase obligations.

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Funding for Polysilicon-Based PV Manufacturers: A Look at Four Companies

Sunday, July 6th, 2008

In this post we will take a look at the future capital needs and funding requirements of four Chinese polysilicon-based PV Manufacturers.

Briefly, our conclusion, based on current low cash levels, high outstanding short-term debt as a percentage of total capital, and future capital needs, in the form of outstanding purchase obligations listed in recent 20-F filings, is that nearly all of the companies mentioned here (i.e. TSL, CSIQ, SOLF, YGE) will have a significant weakening of balance sheets in the near term, as short-term debt levels soar to support growing operating cash losses and purchase obligations. The prospect of immediate dilution via direct equity share offerings is clearly remote, as past history shows that these companies prefer to use convertible debt issues, as opposed to straight equity, as a longer-term financing vehicle.

(Please note: Complete spreadsheets, which are updated quarterly, with all of our financial assumptions about the polysilicon-based PV Manufacturers mentioned here, are available to subscribers of Envoy Global Research).

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Clarifying The Financial Issues Facing Polysilicon-Based PV Manufacturers

Thursday, July 3rd, 2008

In this post, I will address the two most common criticisms of our article last month on several polysilicon-based PV manufacturers and thereby hopefully clarify the financial issues that confront many of these polysilicon-based PV manufacturers.

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ATS Automation Tooling Systems (ATA.TO) Restructuring Shows Evidence of Success: Does the Stock Still Have Upside?

Tuesday, July 1st, 2008

In this post, I’ll take a look at ATS Automation (ATA.TO or ATSAF.PK ), a Canadian company that primarily specializes in providing automated manufacturing systems to various sectors, including the fast-growing alternative energy industry. In addition, the company also owns PhotoWatt France, a provider of photovoltaic solar energy cells and modules and is a leader in the manufacture of UMGSi silicon, a lower grade of silicon that can be acquired more readily than polysilicon.

ATS Automation has been in restructuring mode since September 2007, when a group of shareholders successfully ousted past management and installed a whole new leadership team. Recently, the company’s fourth quarter fiscal 2008 financial results demonstrated significant financial improvements and a strong outlook for fiscal 2009, prompting me to take a closer look at the company. Although the stock has appreciated dramatically from its low earlier this year, I still believe that ATS Automation (ATA.TO), has significant upside (100%) in the next one to three years.

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