Members
Taking a Closer Look at Gafisa (NYSE: GFA BP: GFASA3.SA)
Wednesday, August 27th, 2008
In this post, I’ll take a closer look at Gafisa (NYSE: GFA BP: GFASA3.SA), a Brazilian homebuilder which I mentioned in a previous post. What’s interesting about Gafisa is that the company appears almost impossible to value, and yet it still attracts significant interest, both from Brazilian and foreign investors. Though it’s a difficult task, I’ll attempt to provide a general, and yet still very simplified, framework for an evaluation of Gafisa. My basic assumption, given the growing momentum of mortgage securitization in Brazil, is that the best way for an outside investor to value the company, is perhaps to assign some value to the company’s growing receivable balance, while taking into consideration outstanding debt obligations.
>>Read More
***
Member-Only Post***
>>Become a Member
Posted in Members, Brazil Stocks | 1 Comment »
Speculating on a Brazil Bounce
Tuesday, August 19th, 2008
A good way to play a bounce in the Brazilian stock market (down over 30% in a few months) is via real estate shares.
>>Read More
***
Member-Only Post***
>>Become a Member
Posted in Members, Brazil Stocks | No Comments »
ATS Automation (ATA.TO): Reports Exceptional Results Remains a Solid and Undiscovered Alternative Energy Investment
Wednesday, August 13th, 2008
This morning ATS Automation (ATA.TO) reported financial results that far exceeded my expectations. Overall, my feeling is still that ATA.TO remains undervalued and the stock price should increase significantly as more investors recognize that the company’s turnaround is progressing smoothly and the future outlook for the business is exceptional given the strength in solar and other alternative energy markets.
>>Read More
***
Member-Only Post***
>>Become a Member
Posted in Members, Alternative Energy, ATA.TO | No Comments »
IncrediMail (MAIL): Solid Results Stock Looks Great for 2009
Wednesday, August 13th, 2008
This morning Incredimail (MAIL) announced solid financial results which support my belief that the stock could double in the next 12 months.
>>Read More
***
Member-Only Post***
>>Become a Member
Posted in Members, MAIL | No Comments »
Pulse Data (PSD.TO): Another Low-Risk Oil and Natural Gas Service Stock
Tuesday, July 15th, 2008
We first wrote about Pulse Data (PSD.TO) nearly two years ago, on our previous blog, CasinoCapitalism.com. Since that time, the shares have basically moved nowhere. However, we think that due to certain company changes and industry events, PSD.TO may finally provide patient shareholders a significant return in the coming year. At the same time, downside seems low given the company’s buyback program, a price that is below a previous takeout over and considering the company’s stable and high dividend yield (6.8%).
>>Read More
***
Member-Only Post***
>>Become a Member
Posted in Members, Energy Stocks | 1 Comment »
Earnings Preview: Lufkin Industries (LUFK)
Friday, July 11th, 2008
Lufkin Industries (Nasdaq: LUFK, Market Cap.: $1.1 billion) is an oil services stock that could move 50% higher by year end, with minimal downside risk. Importantly, the first catalyst for an improving share price may come next week when the company announces second quarter fiscal 2008 earnings. We believe that the upcoming report will finally be the start of renewed earnings momentum at the company after nearly two years of sluggish growth. Notably, LUFK is sitting on $100 million in cash and has no debt.
>>Read More
***
Member-Only Post***
>>Become a Member
Posted in Members, LUFK | No Comments »
Incredimail’s Stock (MAIL) Could Get A Boost
Wednesday, July 9th, 2008
Incredimail (Nasdaq: MAIL, Market Cap.: $32 million) is a decent speculation at current prices or lower. My optimism for the shares, at least over a short-period of time, is driven by the fact that the shares remain over 60% below their highs, and yet three positive pieces of news were recently delivered that seemingly could boost the stock price.
>>Read More
***
Member-Only Post***
>>Become a Member
Posted in Members, MAIL | No Comments »
Funding for Polysilicon-Based PV Manufacturers: A Look at Four Companies
Sunday, July 6th, 2008
In this post we will take a look at the future capital needs and funding requirements of four Chinese polysilicon-based PV Manufacturers.
Briefly, our conclusion, based on current low cash levels, high outstanding short-term debt as a percentage of total capital, and future capital needs, in the form of outstanding purchase obligations listed in recent 20-F filings, is that nearly all of the companies mentioned here (i.e. TSL, CSIQ, SOLF, YGE) will have a significant weakening of balance sheets in the near term, as short-term debt levels soar to support growing operating cash losses and purchase obligations. The prospect of immediate dilution via direct equity share offerings is clearly remote, as past history shows that these companies prefer to use convertible debt issues, as opposed to straight equity, as a longer-term financing vehicle.
(Please note: Complete spreadsheets, which are updated quarterly, with all of our financial assumptions about the polysilicon-based PV Manufacturers mentioned here, are available to subscribers of Envoy Global Research).
>>Read More
***
Member-Only Post***
>>Become a Member
Posted in Members, CSIQ, Alternative Energy | No Comments »
Clarifying The Financial Issues Facing Polysilicon-Based PV Manufacturers
Thursday, July 3rd, 2008
In this post, I will address the two most common criticisms of our article last month on several polysilicon-based PV manufacturers and thereby hopefully clarify the financial issues that confront many of these polysilicon-based PV manufacturers.
>>Read More
***
Member-Only Post***
>>Become a Member
Posted in Members, CSIQ, Alternative Energy | No Comments »
ATS Automation Tooling Systems (ATA.TO) Restructuring Shows Evidence of Success: Does the Stock Still Have Upside?
Tuesday, July 1st, 2008
In this post, I’ll take a look at ATS Automation (ATA.TO or ATSAF.PK ), a Canadian company that primarily specializes in providing automated manufacturing systems to various sectors, including the fast-growing alternative energy industry. In addition, the company also owns PhotoWatt France, a provider of photovoltaic solar energy cells and modules and is a leader in the manufacture of UMGSi silicon, a lower grade of silicon that can be acquired more readily than polysilicon.
ATS Automation has been in restructuring mode since September 2007, when a group of shareholders successfully ousted past management and installed a whole new leadership team. Recently, the company’s fourth quarter fiscal 2008 financial results demonstrated significant financial improvements and a strong outlook for fiscal 2009, prompting me to take a closer look at the company. Although the stock has appreciated dramatically from its low earlier this year, I still believe that ATS Automation (ATA.TO), has significant upside (100%) in the next one to three years.
>>Read More
***
Member-Only Post***
>>Become a Member
Posted in Members, Alternative Energy, ATA.TO | No Comments »