As we predicted in an earlier post, MAIL would easily beat its guidance for 2009. Today, MAIL announced that it expects to exceed $9 million in EBITDA in 2009, up from previous expectations of $7 million, and up from virtually nothing last year.
From a valuation standpoint, despite MAIL’s rise the year, the stock still appears very cheap. On an enterprise value (after subtracting cash), the company is valued at about $35 million. This is against $9 million in EBITDA, or about a 4X multiple. This is extraordinarily inexpensive for an Internet advertising business, with many of the comparable companies trading at significantly higher multiples, despite slower growth than MAIL and greater financial risk. Even at a modest 10X multiple, MAIL would be valued at $12, or about double the current price.
Disclosure: Affiliates of Envoy Global Research, and its principals, own shares in MAIL. All ideas, opinions, and/or forecasts, expressed or implied herein, are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to invest, trade, and/or speculate in the markets. Any investments, trades, and/or speculations made in light of the ideas, opinions, and/or forecasts, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
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