Investment thesis: Most important aspect?

Question

What is the most important aspect of any investment thesis?

Answer 1

Ultimately, when you invest you are making a statement about the future, what you think will happen. Any investment thesis must therefore attempt to predict the future and explain how this will effect the price of the particular investment. Very often we miss this point, by focusing on current events, quarterly earnings etc. The important point is to look ahead and develop a thesis as to what the future may look like and what the financial impacts might be.